The Return of the Stab-in-the-Back Myth
After World War 1, a horrific, antisemitic myth was used in Germany to justify many of the arguments that Adolf Hitler and the Nazis used to rise to power. The myth goes something like this: Germany was far too powerful to have lost a war without some sort of deep betrayal. The leaders in the government who overthrew the German Empire and signed the armistice ending WW1 were either criminals or hypnotized by Jews and communists. Hitler and the Nazis were able to leverage this myth because people are great at rationalizing their uncomfortable outcomes and bad at accepting reality. The German people wanted to hear that it wasn’t their fault, so when Hitler told them it wasn’t they were ready to listen, even if it was complete nonsense. The success of this myth represents a critical reality about human nature. It’s something that we absolutely will repeat if we aren’t aware of it and planning accordingly.
Michelle Goldberg appeared on the The Opinions podcast recently and laid out a simple case for believing that this myth may be repurposed in American politics in the near future. America has the strongest military in the world, so it doesn’t make any sense that we can’t simply dominate Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. If the outcome of the War in Iran is a cratering economy, a military stalemate or defeat, and international humiliation that ultimately results in a sequence of crushing political defeats for Republicans in 2026 and 2028, then some future American authoritarian may believe their best route to power is to claim that Trump, the last great Republican President, was hypnotized by Netanyahu, the Jews, and domestic criminals all of whom ultimately stabbed him in the back. In this hypothetical, NATO will have abandoned the US despite the fact that NATO is a defensive alliance and the War in Iran is a war of choice. The solution will be to crack down even harder than before. This is the sort of rhetoric that has taken root on the far right. The similarities are clear. We don’t want to have to learn this lesson the hard way all over again.
Many Americans are now suffering and will continue to suffer from Trump’s disastrous policies, so the question is will Trump supporters rationalize their way into believing Trump was stabbed in the back? Or will they admit that Trumpism failed because it was just corruption and greed wrapped in nationalism and religiosity and they were duped into supporting it by one of the most successful con artists of all time? Or will we find a way to move on that allows them to save face and believe they weren’t duped?1
This is why Democrats absolutely must have a positive vision for America. They have to find some way to bring some significant portion of Trump supporters back into their coalition. It’s not enough to run against Trump. We have to have a vision that actually addresses the material challenges people are facing today not because it’s the right thing to do (though it is) but because recent authoritarian power grabs make it even easier for a future authoritarian to leverage myths like the Stab-in-the-Back myth. To take one example, the K-shaped economy has to be meaningfully addressed or it will be used as evidence to justify a future authoritarian movement. What is the Democratic proposal? This was essentially what happened with immigration. It’s not enough to point at the absolute depravity of ICE. We also have to develop effective alternatives that work and are clearly shown to be working to common, every day Americans.
If people cannot see tangible success, they will support empty promises based on myths and con artistry. We will not be saved by long term investments in things like K-12 education or scientific research (though we definitely need them). We will not be saved by a revival of morality or basic human decency. If anything, the belief that the American electorate was too moral or decent to support a man like Trump is how we got here in the first place.
I’m deeply concerned that Michelle is right. Someone will find a way to lay the blame of Trump’s failures on the Democrats. A lot of the problems during the Carter administration were a result of Nixon’s economic policies, but they were nevertheless great leverage for Regan’s campaign in 1980. If something like this pattern repeats in 2028 and 2032 it will be because Democrats ran against Trump rather than towards a better future. People will rationalize anything if they do not have their bread and circuses.
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This is why JVL is so concerned that we will try to paper over the systemic failures Trump has exposed. It’s going to be tempting for a Democrat to try and run on simply moving forward rather than meaningfully addressing our recent mistakes because this is the easiest route to winning a significant portion of Trump supporters. It’s what happened with Biden after Trump’s first term. It’s what happened with Bush and the non-existent weapons of mass destruction. It’s what happened with Clinton after Lewinsky. It’s what happened with Reagan after Iran Contra. It’s what happened with Nixon after Watergate. We seem to no longer be able to mitigate the possibility of repeating our political disasters. ↩
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